Iran’s economy muddling through scorched earth
The 2015 nuclear deal didn’t give Iran the expected international trade and investment opportunities due to the unilateral re-imposition of sanctions by the US last year.
Iran’s economy has returned to resistance mode and is determined to outlive the Trump administration. High inflation and subdued long-term growth prospects are the price to pay.
Payment capacity is not yet at stake, but political risks are high. EU sanctions and/or an Iranian exit from the nuclear deal are possible next steps, while large-scale social unrest and military conflict are tail risks.
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