U.S. elections – we have a winner: debt
The U.S. elections will spark a period of high uncertainty and market volatility until the end of the year. It could take one to two months after 03 November to ﬁnalize the results due to the record high use of mail-in ballots amid the Covid-19 pandemic. With the outcome likely to be contested by the two camps, a judiciary battle of one or two months is also possible, and market volatility could signiﬁcantly increase during this time. Four possible election outcomes are identified, with the central scenario being a narrow contested victory of Joe Biden, with the Senate still in the hands of the Republicans (40% probability).
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