Is Germany a “stranded” economy?
Recession avoided in 2019, but no rebound on the cards for 2020. At +0.6%, about half the rate for the Eurozone as a whole, German GDP grew at the slowest pace since the region’s sovereign debt crisis. Euler Hermes do not expect 2020 to bring much relief with GDP growth likely to slow marginally to a seasonally-adjusted +0.5%. Moreover the risk that Germany’s “golden” decade of uninterrupted economic growth – the longest period of expansion since reunification – will come to an end in 2020 remains on the table for now, given the cautious outlook for global trade and the automotive industry as well as lingering elevated political uncertainty over trade and Brexit.
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